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E. Lucas: ''Next step is third world war. Russia will attack Baltics''
4/17/2014 10:00:17 PM
In his article in The Daily Mail one of the major Western experts on Russia Edward Lucas pointed out that Russian-Ukrainian war could be a reason for the third world war. Next potential victim of Moscow - the Baltic countries.
Now historians estimate the reasons that 100 years ago led to the First World. "I may be wrong, but in 100 years time, will their successors look back at the events in Ukraine to make sense of the beginnings of the next world conflagration?", he writes.
According to the analyst, Russian armed militants-terrorist in Ukraine are erecting road blocks, storming police stations and ripping down the country's flag. But the most dangerous is that they destroy the system that ensured peace in Europe for several decades.
"The profoundly depressing fact is that the events of the past few months, as Russia has annexed the Crimea and suppressed opposition in Ukraine, have shown the West to be divided, humiliated and powerless in the face of these land grabs. We are soon to face a bleak choice. We can chose to surrender any responsibility we have to protect Ukraine and the Baltic states — almost certainly Putin's next target — from further Russian incursion. Or we can mount a last-ditch attempt to deter Russia from furthering its imperial ambitions", indicates the sovietologist.
"If we do choose to resist Putin, we will risk a terrifying military escalation, which I do not think it an exaggeration to say could bring us to the brink of nuclear war. Putin knows that. And he believes we will choose surrender", says the expert.
Mr. Lucas points out that, unlike in Germany, Russia has never renounced militarism and imperialism, and Putin believes that Russia's mission is to capture the surrounding areas (and then the next adjacent to the already captured surrounding areas - KC). Therefore, Moscow has put Ukraine in a very disadvantageous position when you have to choose either partition of the country, or face war.
"It is about brute power. It is about whether Putin's Russia — a rogue state on Europe's doorstep — can hold its neighbours to ransom, and whether we have the will to resist him. So far the answer to the first question is yes. And to the second a bleak no", writes Lucas.
"Russia has deliberately sought to humiliate and destabilise Ukraine — and the West. Putin does not need to invade, just to provoke. Using social division and agitation he will raise the pressure — whether economic or political — on one or more of the Baltic states until it becomes unbearable.
NATO and the EU — on current form — will merely appeal for dialogue and threaten sanctions. But nothing will happen. Which means the Baltics will buckle, and Putin will take back lands which he believes are rightly Russia's.
That will be the end of NATO — and the dawn of a terrifying new world in which international rules count for nothing and the strong dominate the weak.
Russia — ruthless and greedy — can play divide and rule for decades to come", testifies a specialist on Russia.
Department of Monitoring
Kavkaz Center
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