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New York Times: Russia to be cut off from Western technology and finance
5/13/2014 9:44:44 PM
The New York Times urged the Western powers to make it clear to Putin that he had on his hands not only aces in Ukrainian conflict, and Russia may be cut off from Western technology, arms and finance in case of a military invasion on the south-east of Ukraine. The newspaper said:
Putin has given every indication that his real goal is not to annex any more Ukrainian territory but to transform Ukraine into a federation under a weak and neutral Kiev government permanently dependent on Russia.
What that means is that even if the talks get underway, Kiev and its Western backers may well be confronted with unacceptable demands. Putin is likely to seek recognition of Russia's annexation of Crimea; a level of regional self-government tantamount to partition; and guarantees against political and economic linkages to Europe.
Though some devolution of power from the center to the regions is unavoidable, Kiev must come out of the negotiations with a reasonable degree of central control and the freedom to forge normal relations with the West.
That will not be easy. Ukraine is broke, and Russia is claiming unrealistically large payments to continue supplying natural gas. The Ukrainian authorities have very few options at this point — any military action against the secessionists is certain to cause civilian casualties, which would invite Russian military intervention, but not responding to the separatists' actions would encourage them to expand their control.
Yet Putin's hand is not all aces. He must be aware that any Russian military drive into southeastern Ukraine would entail bloody resistance, serious trade sanctions, enormous costs and, if it led to annexation, a truncated but virulently anti-Russia and pro-West Ukraine.
Germany must make clear to Putin that unless he clears the way for presidential elections on May 25, gets his minions in southeastern Ukraine in line and really pulls back his armies, the European Union and the United States will impose sanctions that will cut Russia off for a long time from Western sources of technology, arms and finance.
Department of Monitoring
Kavkaz Center
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