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Russia's emperor has no clothes
8/6/2014 12:39:16 PM
The past week has been nothing but a string of bad news for Putin. In the wake of the downing of Malaysian Airlines Flight 17, almost certainly by Russia-backed and Russian-led insurgents in Eastern Ukraine, the United States and the European Union have mustered the will to impose sanctions that have some real bite.
Meanwhile, the slow-grinding wheels of justice are catching up with Putin over old crimes and misdemeanors. In a landmark decision Monday, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague, Netherlands ordered Russia to pay $ 50 billion to former shareholders of Yukos, the oil giant dismembered and sold off by the Russian government after its owner, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, ran afoul of Putin by refusing to stay out of politics. On Thursday, the European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg, France hit Russia with an additional 1.9 billion euros—over $ 2.5 billion—in compensation to Yukos shareholders. (If Russia does not start paying up, its assets abroad can be targeted.) Adding a minor but stinging insult to injury, the Strasbourg court also awarded almost $ 40,000 in damages and legal expenses to Russian opposition leader Boris Nemtsov over an improper arrest at a 2010 rally. The money is a drop in the bucket, but the symbolism matters.
Also on Thursday, Putin's very own version of Banquo's ghost came back to haunt him from England, where a judge opened a high-level official inquiry into the 2006 radioactive poisoning death of ex-KGB agent Alexander Litvinenko. (The suspects are Russian agents, one of them now a member of Putin's toy parliament.) British authorities claim the timing has nothing to do with current events; yet, only a year ago Home Secretary Theresa May admitted that the inquiry was stalled partly due to concerns about "international relations." International relations aren't what they used to be.
There is widespread agreement that Putin stumbled badly with his plans for "Novorossiya"—the archaic, Tsarist-era term for Eastern Ukraine that he and his propagandists have dusted off. After the quick success in Crimea, met with toothless and fairly muted outrage from the West, Putin apparently hoped to use the same modus operandi in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions: having a motley crew of disaffected locals and Russian "volunteers" seize power by taking over city and regional government buildings, hold referendums and declare independence. His goal may not have been annexation—a bit too much even for the accommodating international community to swallow—but gaining enough leverage to keep Ukraine cowed, demoralized, and unfit for European Union partnership.
Right now, Putin has several choices:
(1) Ditch the insurgents, seek compromise, and risk losing face in front of the Russian public whose nationalist fervor he has whipped up: from world-defying Protector of Russians Everywhere to craven sellout on bended knee before the West. (What's more, the betrayed insurgents could come back to foment nationalist unrest within Russia.)
(2) Openly invade Eastern Ukraine on a "peacekeeping" mission—a scenario rife with obvious potential for disaster.
(3) Continue unofficially aiding the "Donetsk Republic" with manpower, firepower and other support, creating a long-term "frozen conflict" in Eastern Ukraine. While this would not be as disastrous as open war, it would still risk even stronger international backlash, including more sanctions that could severely hurt not only Russia's economy but the personal fortunes of Putin and his crony capitalists. It could also become a non-option if the Ukrainian army manages to rout the insurgency.
Meanwhile, there are many signs that Putin's billionaire pals are already chafing at the costs of his adventurism. Even before the latest sanctions, there were reports, based on German intelligence sources, of a power struggle in the Kremlin between hardliners and business leaders.
With his stunning 86 percent approval rating, Putin may seem to be riding high. But this patriotic and imperialist fever may prove to be the start of Putinism's final crisis.
Source: Agencies
Kavkaz Center
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